Thailand Covid-19 Modeling Simulator Coronavirus

Covid-19 Spread Summary Thailand

We have computed all modeling data and came up with the following results. Please understand we do not publish data more then 5 weeks in advance and our Reports are only available on Request.

First Wave of Flights from Wuhan to the world including flights to Thailand until 23rd of January 2020 with the Wuhan Lockdown.

First Wave of Flights from Wuhan within the People's Republic of China before the airports were closed January 23, 2020 — First Wave of Flights from Wuhan within the People’s Republic of China before the airports were closed January 23, 2020

First Wave of Flights from all airports within the People's Republic of China 5000km ++ before China banned travelers from going overseas. Flights shown are from December 25, 2019 until January 18, 2020 — First Wave of Flights from all airports within the People’s Republic of China 5000 km ++ before China banned travelers from going overseas. Flights shown are from December 25, 2019 until January 18, 2020 The red routes are directly from Wuhan.

The 2nd Wave of Covid-19 triggered by flights from and to Thailand, South Korea and Japan

Blue Lines are flights from and to South Korea, Violet colors are Thailand the Green lines are flights from and to Japan. — Blue routes are flights from and to South Korea, pink routes are from and to Thailand the Green routes are flights from and to Japan. Thailand and Japan are the countries with the lowest testings but the highest air-traffic. On April 2nd we shall have all Data from ICAO and IATA but from our current estimate it will be Japan and Thailand.

Coronavirus Spread Simulator for Thailand (Data used)

All data that have been retrieved and have been feeded to five different Linux high-powered servers (CSV to MySQL) all based in the German city of Wiesbaden. We process all modelling on different formula’s and data with countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN). Currently we have direct-access to 16 different Health organisations globally and our Meta Retrieval system downloads those CSV tables and inject their data in our SQL Database tables for automatic processing of all Data. The data for Thailand is very limited and we base our numbers mainly on ASEAN Countries including data that comes from the governments of Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. We record all Covid-19 spreads for each province or state in those other ASEAN countries and then generate full reports that takes around 18 hours to compute.

The original source-code of SentosaXchange was based on mathematical calculations that we developed for the Pacific Asia Travel Association for their annual PATA Travel Mart (PTM) and included PTM’s in India (2015), Indonesia (2016), Macao (2017), Kazakhstan (2018) and Malaysia (2019).

Our calculations are based on 4 weeks ahead and we do not publish any data on the World Wide Web after 4 weeks.

Starting Thai Population	69,928,453
Immune Population (not enough data)	0
Start Date	2020-02-26
Initial Infections	35
Infection Rate (3%) due to numbers we matched from Malaysia - Indonesia and the Philippines. We left Singapore out due to high efficiency in tracing community spread.	2.5
Incubation Days	10
Mortality Rate	1%
Mortality Complication (ICU's that might get overloaded) - Added 20% specially for the Thai provinces in North Thailand - Northeast and the Deep South of Thailand due to very limited ICU units and ventilators	3%
Burnout Rate	4%
Iteration Count (Weeks)	8
Thai Population at Risk	69,928,453
Total Thai's Infected with Covid-19	24,023
Total Thai's Recovered from Covid-19	23,464
Total Thai Deaths	559
Total Uninfected	69,904,430
Thai Population Alive after Covid-19 Pandemic	69,927,894

Date	Day	New Infected	Total Infected	New Deaths	Total Deaths	Population Alive
2020-02-28	0	35	35	0	0	69,928,453
2020-03-09	10	86	119	2	2	69,928,451
2020-03-19	20	208	322	5	7	69,928,446
2020-03-29	30	495	805	12	19	69,928,434
2020-04-08	40	1,158	1,935	28	47	69,928,406
2020-04-18	50	2,663	4,534	64	111	69,928,342
2020-04-28	60	6,018	10,406	146	257	69,928,196
2020-05-08	70	13,360	23,438	328	585	69,927,868

Total Covid-19 Infections via Deaths in Thailand

Covid-19 Disease Severity Chart for Thailand

Covid-19 Disease Hospitalization Chart for Thailand

We started in this model with an infection of 10 on the 28th of February 2020. Mortality rate is 2.3% due to an overload of hospital ICU units. We have taken Bangkok out with 10 million to only compute Hospitalization outside Bangkok